November ballot initiatives shaping up as battle for California's future
- June 24, 2010
California's congested November election came into focus Thursday after a last-minute flurry of measures qualified for the ballot, setting the stage for a pitched — and pricey — battle for the future of the state.
Four new major initiatives joined the fray Thursday, the final day to be certified for this fall's ballot: Voters will be asked to repeal nearly $2 billion in corporate tax breaks; eliminate the two-thirds majority lawmakers need to pass a state budget; make it tougher to raise fees and other charges in the Legislature; and abolish a citizens' commission to redraw legislative districts.
In all, voters will confront 10 measures Nov. 2 including some landmark initiatives, from legalizing marijuana to suspending the state's greenhouse gas laws, to borrowing $11 billion for new dams and other water infrastructure.
So much of the ballot amounts to a major showdown between Big Labor and Big Business.
"This is huge stuff," said Melissa Michelson, a political science professor at California State East Bay.
It's not the largest number of issues that voters have faced — there were 13 initiatives in 2006 and 12 in 2008. But the collective change contained in the measures has pundits and political observers bracing for one of the craziest and most expensive election cycles in modern California history. And all signs are pointing to another difficult summer of budget talks, a backdrop that may only heighten the sense of crisis and restlessness felt by a frustrated electorate.
Also on the ballot: an effort to raise the vehicle registration fees on behalf of state parks; a measure that would forbid state raids of local tax and redevelopment cash; and a plan to expand political redistricting reform in the state by giving the citizens panel that oversees legislative districts power over congressional boundaries, too. That would fly in the face of another measure that qualified Thursday to kill the panel altogether.
Given the spectrum of interests represented, pundits expect an outpouring of campaign cash — from traditional heavyweights like labor unions and business groups but also from environmental organizations and family values coalitions. That spending, of course, will compete with the big bucks flowing down from the top of the ballot, with Meg Whitman, the billionaire Republican nominee for governor, vowing to spend at least $150 million to reach Sacramento.
Interest in the various measures could bring more voters to the polls, some analysts say. But the weight of what's on the ballot — and the crush of advertising — could also leave Californians annoyed, confused and unwilling to decide issues they feel should be handled in Sacramento.
"When voters get turned off, they start voting no," Michelson said. "No means no change."
For some groups, such as organized labor, cash could be spread thin. Besides the tax break measure, backed by the California Teachers Association, unions are supporting the proposition to lower the budget threshold from two-thirds to a simple majority, which is backed by the California Federation of Teachers. Unions also are expected to fight the proposal to make taxes and fees harder to raise. Moreover, several labor groups have promised to help Democratic gubernatorial nominee Jerry Brown keep pace with Whitman.
"They can't be happy," said Larry Gerston, a political science professor at San Jose State University. "They're just too many issues that are critical to their value set. They won't be able to put money into all of them."
Business interests, in turn, won't need to support Whitman to the same degree. But they will spend heavily to maintain the two-thirds budget rule and their tax breaks, while also pushing hard for their own measure, sponsored by the California Chamber of Commerce, making fee hikes more difficult.
Two-thirds "has been the secret weapon for moneyed interests in California," Gerston said. "You can basically hold up any new taxes. That's been a saving grace for business."
Ironically, the measure to put off the state's strict environmental laws, AB 32, could pit business group against business group. Oil companies and anti-tax groups, among others, are prepared to pour millions into the campaign. But on the other side, organizations like the Silicon Valley Leadership Group that promote green tech growth are decrying the measure as a job killer.
Will all that money make a difference? Jack Citrin, a political scientist at UC Berkeley, invoked Pacific Gas & Electric, which spent $46 million on a measure only to see it lose in the June primary.
"We've seen,'' he said, "that money doesn't always determine an outcome."